Do You Want to Lead or Follow the Real Estate Market

03 March 2010

I have just read another article by so called economists who present themselves as real estate experts. Now they are telling us that 'seasonally adjusted' real estate sales were lower in January across Canada. That's when actual sales were up!! So how did they seasonally adjust? Did they take historical data from the past 20 years? That is a sure recipe for disaster. Today's market is nothing like the markets of even 10 years ago. For me, looking at any data more than 5 years old is irrelevant. All I know is that real estate sales in Toronto for January were up by 87%  and condos were even stronger - up 115% over January 2009. Of more relevance is the fact that sales were about the same as in 2008 when everyone was trying to beat the second City Land Transfer Tax. Since I do not consider myself an expert on the rest of Canada, I will make no comments on sales in those  markets. So if the so called experts are right, then February sales should be declining even faster. Of course that information will not be available until sometime in March or April for these experts to analyze. However, I can tell you that February sales in Toronto will be at an 'all time' high for this month - better than 2008 and the record setting 2007. How do I know? Being a member of a real estate board does have some advantages, as we can access information on a daily basis. Plus I can talk to my agents and observe how just about every condo property for sale under $500,000 is in multiple offers!!