GDP Numbers and the Real Estate Market

19 August 2015

This week I want to veer slightly off Real Estate and talk about the relevance of government statistics and how it should not impact our real estate decisions.

Right now everyone is asking if we’re in a recession. A recession is 2 quarters of negative growth. However, we won’t know the June GDP numbers until September and by that time they will probably revise the first quarter numbers as well; Just like they did in the U.S.

The information we get is way too late and way too general for people to make decisions. So what do I do? I talk to business owners about their sales. Are they up, down and why?

I could have told you in February that the first quarter was weak. No one was in the stores because of the cold weather. Certainty low oil prices are affecting our economy, but the lower Canadian dollar is also helping in Ontario, these are offsets within the GDP numbers. So while Real Estate prices are lower in Alberta, prices in Toronto are higher. Our economy is just stronger. So, look local, not national when evaluating real estate, and don’t forget to ask people how their business is doing.