3 Predictions for Toronto Real Estate in 2018

20 December 2017

Last year we offered our three predictions for the 2017 Real Estate Market. We predicted lower sales, and we were right. Secondly, we said price increases would average 5-10%, prices did go up by 30% in the first part of the year but they backed off through the balance of the year and they were in the 5-10% range. Although, condos downtown, were 20% higher. The third point we made was there would be a sizeable increase in rentals, and we were right again.

Now, for 2018. Here's what we predict

First, we have to be aware of the OSFI Stress Test for conventional mortgages starting January 1st. Buyers in 2018 will need to qualify for conventional mortgages at the contract rate plus 2%. That will make it more challenging for many. Nonetheless, here's what we forecast.

Sales will be higher in 2018 than in 2017. Why? Most sales are the result of lifestyle changes and a growing population. There will be some challenges for people qualifying at the margin for some of these sales, so we don't expect sales to reach those of 2016.

Secondly, prices over the market will be neutral. We expect some markets to be up by 5% while others will be down by 5% depending on the style and location of the property. The GTA market today is no longer homogeneous.

Our third prediction is the sweet spot for sales will be between $500,000 and $1,000,000 in 2018. It will be 416 area based. It is all dependant on the affordability issues and the number of listings. They will be limited in the 416 and we expect to see excessive listings in the 905.

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